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The basis of activities in Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) is risk assessment in the workplace. Risk assessment allows the execution of OHS activities within a plan. The ranking of activities in this plan is done according to the risk value. As this plan may require 3-4 years or more, on condition that the calculation of the plan is correct, sources may be used effectively. The guidelines regarding the risk assessment task are outlined by national and international regulations. How is the risk value calculated? Many methods have been developed for the calculation of the risk value. It can be calculated correctly by proper calculation of the risk component.This component has often been reported in the literature and limited to the value of probability and severity. In studies in the literature, due to the risk value generally being calculated by safety experts? who use a narrow assessment scale subjective approach, there is a possibility that some risks will share the same risk value with each other. In this study, a new artificial-regression probability value calculation model, which was developed on the basis of actual data arranged according to the laws of Heinrich, was proposed to both expand this narrow scale and prevent subjectivity. The proposed model and the classical probability assessment approach used in the literature was integrated and applied to a factory, that has been operating for many years with various workshops, and the results were compared.

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